Table I. Estimates for the response of global average crop yields to warming and CO2 changes over the next decades

The most likely values and plausible ranges are both shown. Estimates are based on our interpretation of various sources (IPCC, 2001; Long et al., 2006; Lobell and Field, 2007; Meehl et al., 2007; Lobell et al., 2011).

Global Crop AreaChange in T per DecadeaChange in Yield per °CChange in Yield per DecadeChange in CO2 per DecadeChange in Yield per µL L−1bChange in Yield per Decade
°C%µL L−1%
Likely value0.3−5−1.5250.071.8
Plausible range0.1 to 0.5−8 to −3−4 to −0.320 to 300.05 to 0.091.0 to 2.7
  • a Averaged over cropland areas.

  • b Using values for C3 grains, ignoring differences for C4 grains and nongrain crops, which would be lower and higher, respectively.